Mastering Overbet-Pushing on the Flop: A New Poker Strategy

The concept of overbet-pushing on the flop is relatively new and not widely used in modern poker, including high-stakes games. However, the solver from GTO Wizard suggests that this strategy will become more common in the next one or two years. Overbet-pushing is more likely to occur in SPR (Stack-to-Pot Ratio) of 2-3 or higher, as it helps avoid complex decisions on the turn.

The preferred sizing for overbet-pushing is often all-in, especially when the goal is to end the hand quickly. In a case where the button pushes against the big blind with an SPR of 3.4, the risk-premium for the big blind is 6.2%, and for the button, it is 12.2%. The solver suggests that the button should push with hands like ATs, KTs, KJo, QJo, and QTs, which are also part of the value range.

In a 3-bet pot scenario, the button's all-in range includes many JTs, some ATo, and almost half of the Ks and As, while the weaker overpairs like Qs and Js are rarely used. When the button checks, the big blind's all-in range includes hands like T9s, T8s, K9s, KQo, AQo, and JTs, while the button folds many hands that would have to be discarded against an all-in. In a scenario with very small stacks, the big blind donk-pushes 30% of their hands on a flop with an SPR of 2.5, using hands like two pairs and straight draws.