Luck: The Most Important Skill in Poker

The results of your career are determined by variance, and even over a distance of 500k hands, there can be huge swings. Nick Schulman commented that the real shock comes from results over distances of 2 million and 6.5 million hands. Matt agreed that a player with a win rate of 3bb can show 5.5bb and be considered a top-5 player in the world, or show 0.5bb and be an average grinder living off rakeback.

Andrew Lichtenberger stated that luck is the most important skill in poker. Chris Brewer joked that the experiment shows how futile it is to try to explain one's results in poker. Joe Ingram emphasized the importance of choosing the right game, table position, and starting hands in cash games, and also mentioned the role of luck.

David Baker noted that while variance plays a huge role, selection, psychology, and discipline are more influential. Matt Berkey highlighted that variance significantly affects survival in poker, and there are many examples of players with equal skill but different outcomes due to variance. Brian Winter suggested that the lesson from the experiment is that results in poker are heavily dependent on variance. Matt Marinelli disagreed, stating that a player's win rate can be affected by bad runs, and it's important to minimize the influence of variance.